Top 25 Forecasts

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This is a showcase of the lone undefeated teams in the WAC and the winner here is in the driver’s seat for the conf title. The Broncos maybe starting to feel some BCS pressure as they were jumped by TCU in the BCS standings this week and HC Petersen did address the question of having to blow teams out regularly in his press conference. Boise has won 8 of 9 in this series and are 4-0 outscoring Hawaii by 30 ppg on “The Blue.” This game features two of the NCAA’s top 10 offenses (BSU #5, UH #7). While BSU also boasts the NCAA’s #3 D, this is an area where UH has made strides with their #39 unit TY. UH QB Moniz leads the NCAA in ttl off. Boise QB Moore is avg 266 ypg (70%) with an 18-2 ratio (#1 NCAA pass eff). UH is playing for a 10th str wk (3rd trip to the mainland in 5 wks) but has won 6 consecutive games and LW accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl. Boise is off a Tues night gm with extra days to prepare but the Warriors are a legitimate threat to keep this one close well into the 2H before the Broncos pull away.

PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 41 HAWAII 27

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The game of the week in College Football this week as ESPN GameDay will be on hand and this is a national title elimination game. At least one of these teams has come into the matchup undefeated with BCS aspirations the L/3 yrs. Both are undefeated and blowing out foes with TCU winning on avg 41-9 (+268 ypg) and UT winning 45-14 (+182). TCU’s Dalton is avg 210 ypg (66%) with a 16-5 ratio and RB Wesley leads with 937 (6.8). UT’s QB Wynn is avg 239 ypg (69%) with a 13-6 ratio but faces his toughest test yet vs my #4 pass eff D (119 ypg, 50%, 7-7). RB’s Wide (491, 5.0) and Asiata (488, 4.7) also run up against the NCAA’s #9 rush D all’g 98 ypg (3.3). TCU has a slight edge on (#12-17) while Utah has PR Smithson and the slight ST’s edge (#1-6). Both rank high on D across the board. Two years ago TCU came into Salt Lake City and had a 416-275 yd edge but missed a couple of key FG's in the loss. LY TCU scored 3 TD’s in 2:30 early 2Q to break it open in front of a record home crowd as they won by 4 TD's. The Frogs have a more veteran team have played a much tougher schedule and keep their national title hopes alive.

PHIL’S FORECAST : tcu 30 utah 20

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Wisconsin has won 4 str in this seriers and LY held Purdue to a ssn low 141 yds (next lowest was 329) and it was Purdue's 1st B10 road shutout S/’95. UW has outgained PU by 198 ypg the L/2 (avg score 31-2). LY the Badgers were off a bye and dominated with their size edge and TY are off a bye again. UW used to bye to heal inj’s to multiple starters after the 2 biggest wins in the Bielema era over #1 OSU and at Iowa. Led by Clay (887, 5.5) and White (570, 6.6) UW ran for 163 ypg vs the B10’s top 2 rush D’s and Iowa’s Ferentz later said the Badger OL was the best he’d seen in his 12 yrs as HC. Meanwhile Purdue was forced to start its 3rd diff QB vs Illinois last week (1st time S/’96) as true Fr Robinson hit just 7-20 for just 52 yd in a dismal 44-10 loss. Ohio St and Illinois have run right at the NCAA’s tfl leader DE Kerrigan avg 186 ypg (3.9) limiting his effectiveness. The Badgers keep their Big 10 title hopes alive with a comfortable win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : wisconsin 37 purdue 16

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This is a pivotal game in the Pac-10 between 2 tms chasing Oregon for the top spot. Last week the Cardinal were very impressive as they scored on 5 of their 1st 6 drives running away with a 41-0 win in Seattle. Arizona despite having a ssn-best 583 yds had some difficulty shaking off a pesky Bruins team. The Wildcats should have 2 healthy QB’s here as despite have 2 consec successful starts, QB Scott (390 ttl yds LW) will likely turn the team back over to Foles (267 ypg, 75%) who missed the L/2 (knee). LY Stanford blew a 15 pt lead as AZ RB Grigsby scored on a 57 yd TD run w/2:57 remaining. Stanford has scored 30 or more points in eight straight games, the longest streak in school history, and has averaged 42.4 points, the fifth most in the nation. Stanford still has hopes of playing in the Rose Bowl this year if Oregon plays for the national title and get a crucial home win if they want to achieve that goal.

PHIL’S FORECAST : stanford 27 arizona 24

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Last week Missouri's national title hopes were crushed in Lincoln as the Huskers used big plays to roar out to a 24-0 1Q lead and held on. Despite the team’s hot start Gabbert (262, 64%, 12-4) has been inconsistent at times ranking just #7 among B12 pass eff leaders (#55 NCAA). The Tigers D has been the story for all the right reasons until getting shredded for big plays by NU’s run gm (328, 7.0) LW. Texas Tech meanwhile lost 45-27 at College Station for its 1st 4-4 start S/’99.The Raiders were outgained 623-452 but also lost 2 fmbl’s on the goal line. Tuberville said after the gm that they may be forced to go to more of a run gm to help out the struggling D which is allowing a B12 worst 450 ypg (#113 NCAA). This should be another high-scoring affair but the Tigers defense gets a stop late and Mizzou gets the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MISSOURI 38 TEXAS TECH 35

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Last week MSU’s unbeaten bubble burst in a big way at Iowa as the Spartans trailed 30-0 at the half as Cousins threw 3 int incl the gm turning 1Q 66 yd IR TD. After running for 175 in each of the 1st 6, MSU’s run gm has been slowed to just 76 ypg (3.0) the L/3. Minnesota was pummelled by OSU 52-10 as the Bucks had 24-10 FD and 507-232 yd edges but also scored TD’s via a blk’d P and a fmbl return. Weber is UM’s all-time passing leader and the offense seems to have finally found a TB in Eskridge (523, 3.7). The Gophers are last in the NCAA in ypp all’d (6.97) and sks (3). This should be a high scoring game but the Spartans get the bounce back win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: michigan st 40 minnesota 20

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Oklahoma St hasn’t lost to BU in Stillwater S/’39 and has won 13 of their L/14 games in the series. NCAA’s #1 WR OSU’s Blackmon (1112, 17.9, 14 TD) is exp to return here after being susp’d for the Cowboys 24-14 win at K-St. OSU surprisingly scored just 17 off pts despite a 511-289 yd edge as they fmbl’d twice at the 38 and were SOD at the Cats 28. QB Weeden is #8 NCAA passing (318, 65%, 23-9) and the NCAA’s #3 rusher Hunter (1174, 6.2) leads a potent offense. Baylor leads the B12 South after its 1st win in Austin S/’91. QB Griffin (288 ypg, 67%, 20-5, 401 rush) leads the NCAA in pts responsible for and is #3 NCAA in ttl off. The battle between the B12’s most surprising teams could come down to who has the ball last.

PHIL’S FORECAST : oklahoma st 37 baylor 34

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NCSt was lucky to get a win last week as the Pack was down 21-7 at half vs FSU on Thurs night. They battled back and on the GW drive conv 4D twice, incl 4&gl from the 1 when QB Wilson found a wide open TE Bryan in the back of the EZ w/2:40 left. NCSt had lost 2 of its L/3 on last-minute drives and it looked like it would happen again as FSU got to the 4 but LB Irving grabbed a Ponder fmbl to preserve the win. Wilson did become the 1st NCSt QB in 22Y with 3 rush TD in a gm. HC O’Brien is 0-3 vs Clemson being outscored by 20 ppg and outgained by 207. The Tigers are off a tough loss to BC, 16-10 as they missed two FG’s and had 3 trips inside BC terr but were SOD and int’d twice. QB Parker only threw for 176 with an 0-2 ratio. Top rusher Ellington missed the end of the gm (foot) and will be out a few wks. Clemson has won 6 str over NCSt by 16 ppg and over L/5Y has outgained them in each (+188 ypg) and keeps the trend going here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : clemson 27 nc state 17

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Idaho is happy to be back home as they’ve played their L/5 gms in 5 different time zones incl LW’s in Hawaii where 4 TO’s led to 28 pts in a 45-10 loss. QB Enderle is avg 285 ypg (59%) with a 16-12 ratio but was only 23-41 for 207 yds and 2 int LW. UN (#3 ttl off) is led by QB Kaepernick (209 ypg, 68%, 12-5 ratio, 771 rush yds) who is #10 in the NCAA in ttl off. Last week if you would have looked at the final score, you would have thought the game was close but Nevada actually had a 35-0 HT lead over USU before all’g 42 2H pts in a 56-42 win. In the Pack’s L/3 gms in the Kibbie Dome, UN has won by an avg of 51-14 outgaining UI by 250 ypg with 35, 38 and 35 pt wins! Look for the Pack to run their win streak to 4 in a row in the dome.

PHIL’S FORECAST : nevada 48 idaho 31